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Your list of potential failure modes seems pretty comprehensive. The dowel could shear, rip through the wood, or the board itself might break. To determine which will happen first, you need to consider the shear strength of the dowel and the tensile strength of the wood. Calculate the forces acting on the dowel and the board, then compare them to these strength values. If the applied force exceeds the shear strength of the dowel, it will shear. If it exceeds the tensile strength of the wood, the wood will rip or the board will break. This way, you can predict the failure mode based on the material properties and the applied forces.